Opponent Preview: Louisville
Meet the Cardinals... A team looking to get back to a Regional Louisville's baseball team is currently sitting at 3-6 in ACC play, with an RPI of 112 and a 52nd in 643’s DSR. This is a significant turnaround for the team under coach Dan McDonnell, who has only missed two of the last three postseasons. The Cardinals' lineup is strong, with a collective slash line of.318/.415/.545, an 11.4 BB% and 17.4 K%. However, Louisville's defense has struggled this year, with only UNC's worse mark among ACC schools. The team's remaining schedule includes four of seven remaining ACC series against ranked teams and three midweek games against ranked foes. Despite this, I'm still optimistic about the team's chances of making some noise throughout the remainder of ACC play.
Published : 4 weeks ago by PirateWolf in Sports
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Tell me about this team
After missing just one postseason over Dan McDonnell’s first 13 seasons at Louisville - including hosting eight Regionals, making eight Super Regionals while hosting six of them, and reaching the College World Series five times - the Cardinals have missed two of the last three postseasons. This is uncharted territory for the Louisville program under McDonnell.
This was expected to be a bounce-back year, but with the Cardinals sitting at 3-6 in ACC play and with an RPI of 112 (although 52nd in 643’s DSR), Louisville finds themselves on the wrong side of the early bubble, not being included in D1 Baseball’s midseason Field of 64 projection.
There is still time, though, and starting off league play with #11 Virginia Tech, #21 (and preseason #1) Wake Forest, and #14 Florida State is a tough way to kick things off. This is the ACC, so things aren’t going to get much easier (four of seven remaining ACC series are against ranked squads, plus three midweek games remaining against ranked foes). The RPI will take care of itself based on SOS, but the Cards are going to need to be around .500 in ACC play when all is said and done if they’re going to get back to a Regional.
Pulling its’ weight is the Cardinals’ lineup with a collective .318/.415/.545 slash line, an 11.4 BB% and 17.4 K%. Aside from just mashing the ball, that group is 62-of-74 on stolen bases, averaging over 2.6 stolen base attempts per game. Only one hitter who has stepped to the plate for Louisville this year has an OBP below .377, which is a stat made all the more impressive by the fact that 14 hitters have 48 or more plate appearances (State only has nine such hitters).
In atypical fashion, Louisville's defense has struggled. The Card’s as a team sport just a .964 fielding percentage, with only UNC sporting a worse mark among ACC schools. They have thrown out 10 attempted base stealers on the year, which has helped to make up a bit.
The pitching staff still hasn’t nailed down that third weekend starter, but it does have a stud in Evan Webster and a solid #2 in Sebastian Gongora. Those lefties could give State hitters fits. The bullpen is deep and not without options, but has had its struggles this year. Without a true shutdown arm - Riley Phillips could be that guy, although he’s been moved to the weekend rotation of late - things have been shuffled about. Overall, it’s a solid group that has been better than the Wolfpack’s to date.
There’s talent for sure and the bats can carry this team into a Regional. The defense is a worry, though, as is the remaining schedule. There’s opportunity, there’s talent, but there’s not a lot of time left to figure it out. I’d still bank on this team making some noise throughout the remainder of ACC play.
RF Isaac Humphrey (rJR) - .333/.464/.603, 16.5 BB%, 12.4 K%, 7-7 SB. Was a borderline snub for not getting ACC All-Freshman honors in 2022 (.328/.458/.490), but then slumped last year (.246/.406/.396). The lefty currently has a five-game hitting streak going and offers some speed on the bases.
LF J.T. Benson (rJR) - .286/.440/.442, 18.9 BB%, 15.3 K%, 17-21 SB. Like Humphrey, did not play his first year on campus in 2021 (although he and Humphrey are both listed as seniors on the Louisville roster). Really quick on the bases (34 steals over the last two years).
SS Gavin Kilen (SO) - .343/.384/.676, 4.4 BB%, 8.8 K%, 1-3 SB. The compact lefty hitter started 38 games a year ago and has moved over the full-time starting SS for the Cards this year. This is his breakout year and he already has 25 XBH (16 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR).
C Luke Napleton (SR) - .353/.459/.765, 15.3 BB%, 24.7 K%, 1-1 SB. A grad transfer from D2 Quincy University where he was a 1st Team All-American last year and hit 49 HR over his last two years there. Hasn’t been able to consistently tap into that power with Louisville, but does lead the team in HR (7).
LHP Sebastian Gongora (rJR) - 3-2, 5.20 ERA, 36.1 IP, 8.5 BB%, 25.0 K%. Grad transfer from Wright State was the Horizon League Pitcher of the Year in 2023 and a Horizon League All-Freshman honoree in 2022. He can hit the mid-90’s with the heater and his curveball is excellent. Don’t let the high ERA fool you, there’s some bad luck in there.
LHP Evan Webster (SR) - 3-1, 2.31 ERA, 35.0 IP, 6.3 BB%, 23.6 K%. A career reliever has found success as the ace of the staff this year. Has allowed more than one run in just a single start (5 R in 4.0 IP vs Virginia Tech). Absent that outing, he’s allowed 4 R over 31.0 IP (1.16 ERA). Not an overpowering arm, but has a four-pitch mix that keeps hitters off balance.
LHP Riley Phillips (SR) - 1-2, 7.13 ERA, 17.2 IP, 11.5 BB%, 27.1 K%. Was a full-time starter in 2022 before moving to more of a relief role last year with good success (although worse control). Started off this year as a reliever, but moved to the weekend rotation two weeks ago. Isn’t fully stretched out, but if the control can improve, he could give the Cardinals a lethal weekend trio.
RHP Tucker Biven (SO) - 2-0, 1 SV, 1.26 ERA, 14.1 IP, 8.1 BB%, 27.4 K%. Has a low-to-mid-90’s heater as part of a four pitch mix that opponents haven’t been able to square up very often. Has allowed runs in just two of ten outings.
LHP Ty Starke (FR) - 1-0, 1.59 ERA, 11.1 IP, 9.6 BB%, 17.3 K%. The 6’6 local product is having a great first year on campus. The walk numbers are a little more alarming in the stat line than in reality. He’s only allowed 2 extra-base hits all year (both doubles).
RHP Kaleb Corbett (SR) - 1-0, 6.75 ERA, 16.0 IP, 6.1 BB%, 28.8 K%. The frequently used reliever has been a mixed bag, but the stuff is good, with his slider being the best offering. Can give the team multiple innings, including 3.1 against Wake Forest.
Although Louisville is 13th in the ACC in home runs per game, the Cardinals are 5th in slugging percentage thanks to being 2nd in doubles per game and 1st in triples per game.
Cardinals pitchers lead the ACC in pickoffs (8) while the team is also tied for 2nd in the league in caught stealing by (10). NC State leads the conference in the latter category (11).
Last year broke Louisville's 9-year streak of having a player drafted in the first two rounds of the MLB Draft. If you extend that to the first three rounds, that run was 11 years, but also broken last year. The Cardinals have had a player drafted in the first five rounds each year since 2007.
The Key To A Series Win For State
With an offense that can hit top-to-bottom like Louisville’s, NC State’s pitchers are going to need to keep the ball down in the zone to not allow the Cardinals to beat State with the longball. On the other side, Pack hitters need to focus on line drive approaches erring on the side of putting the ball on the ground to test a defense that has been anything but strong for Louisville.
The combination of Louisville rolling out a trio of lefties in the starting rotation, a productive lineup, and this one being on the road, I just don’t have a good feeling here.
Outcome: The Cards take two of three.
Topics: Baseball